Van Buren, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

281
FXUS64 KTSA 112338
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

 - An unsettled weather pattern with multiple opportunities for
   thunderstorms, along with some severe weather and locally heavy
   rainfall potential through mid next week.

 - A window for higher-end severe weather potential exists Tuesday
   into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Breezy southerly winds and warming temperatures return this
afternoon as the surface front that was in the vicinity yesterday
lifts back northward in response to surface pressure falls over
the Central Plains. Cloud cover will also be on the increase over
the region this afternoon as low level moisture advects back into
the area. Much of the day should be dry across the region, though
a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop during
peak heating...mainly across eastern Oklahoma as a weak
disturbance moves quickly through the area. Storms could
potentially produce some small hail and gusty winds, but the
severe potential is pretty low given relatively weak shear through
the afternoon. Any storms should die off fairly quickly toward
and after sunset with the loss of instability. A relatively quiet
evening and overnight period is in store with rather mild lows in
the 60s owing to the increase in moisture and southerly flow
across much of the region.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Another weak mid level disturbance and associated jet streak is
progged to track northeastward out of the Southwest CONUS tonight
within the strengthening southwest flow aloft. This will likely
initiate a cluster of thunderstorms across west Texas this
evening, growing upscale into an MCS overnight as it tracks
northeastward toward eastern Oklahoma Sunday morning. Given the
timing of the system, the severe potential is once again rather
limited on Sunday. Mainly showers with embedded thunderstorms are
expected through the day Sunday. An uptick in intensity is
possible into the afternoon across southeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas as greater instability develops. Redevelopment
of storms during the afternoon further west along the dryline is
less certain as subtle subsidence in the wake of the exiting wave
spreads over the region. Due to widespread rain and cloud cover,
have continued trending cooler with highs Sunday. Moving into
Monday, a fairly robust severe weather environment will be in
place over the region, but warm 850mb temps will likely keep the
region capped during the afternoon in the absence of a real
forcing mechanism over the Southern Plains. A storm or two could
initiate along the dryline to the west, but current potential is
low in that scenario and any storms would likely remain west of
the local region through Monday evening.

Thunderstorm and thus severe chances increase Tuesday as a
stronger mid level shortwave ejects out over the Plains. Guidance
has continued to trend further north with the main synoptic
forcing more across the Central Plains and Midwest Regions which
does make storm initiation and coverage a little less certain
still on Tuesday. The dryline is progged to mix further east on
Tuesday though, while a secondary jet streak noses into the
Southern Plains late Tuesday afternoon. This should be enough to
at least see some scattered thunderstorm development along the
dryline as 850 temps cool somewhat under influence of the nearby
trough. Storms could then move into eastern Oklahoma by late
afternoon/early evening with all severe hazards in play.
Additional potential exists on Wednesday as a secondary piece of
energy pushes into the region and a dryline/frontal boundary mix
more into eastern Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. Similar
parameters in place would suggest more higher end severe potential
with greater confidence in higher storm coverage of any of the
previous days.

The passage of the mid level wave finally by Thursday should lead
to at least a brief break in the storm chances. Data does continue
to indicate that the atmosphere will re load into next weekend
as a strong trough digs into the Southwest and thunderstorm/severe
chances increase again by Friday into Saturday.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Current breezy and gusty southerly winds will persist through
sunset before decreasing. A few showers, and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two, will also remain possible through sunset. But
most TAF sites should remain dry. After sunset, dry conditions
are anticipated through the overnight period. A low level jet
will develop around or just after midnight tonight, impacting most
TAF sites overnight tonight and into Sunday morning. A line of
showers and thunderstorms is still forecast to move into eastern
Oklahoma just after sunrise. These storms may fall apart as they
continue to move through eastern Oklahoma. Some redeveloping
convection may occur by early afternoon as the line pushes into
far eastern Oklahoma and western/northwestern Arkansas. Ceilings
and visibilities will drop to MVFR, IFR, and perhaps LIFR
underneath heavier convection that occurs. Most, if not all,
convection should wind down or shift east of the area by mid-late
afternoon. Southerly winds will also crank up tomorrow afternoon,
with gusts 20-30 knots through much of the afternoon.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  65  75  67 /  30  50  90  20
FSM   83  65  79  66 /  10  20  80  60
MLC   81  65  76  67 /  20  50  90  40
BVO   79  61  76  62 /  30  50 100  20
FYV   80  63  75  64 /  20  10  80  60
BYV   80  64  76  65 /  20  10  60  50
MKO   81  64  75  66 /  20  40  90  30
MIO   80  63  73  65 /  20  20  90  30
F10   80  64  76  66 /  30  60  90  20
HHW   80  63  75  64 /  20  30  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67